Takeaways:

•MI-Sen: ’24 Nominee Mike Rogers (R) Back for New Race
•MN-Sen: Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) Won’t Run for Senate
•CO-8: Ex-Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) Returns for Rematch
•NY-21: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) Contemplates Gov Run
•CO-Gov: Sen. Michael Bennet (D) Announces for Governor
•IA-Gov: Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) Won’t Seek Re-Election
•Oakland: Ex-Rep. Barbara Lee (D) Trails in Mayoral Count

Senate Michigan: Former seven-term Michigan US Rep. Mike Rogers (R), who came within 19,006 votes of upsetting now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in November, announced that he will return in 2026 to compete for the state’s second open Senate seat in consecutive election cycles. Immediately, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) endorsed Mr. Rogers. US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) confirms he is considering a Senate bid but has flirted with a statewide run before and backed away. In the 2024 general election, Mr. Rogers also defied the polling, which predicted a more comfortable victory for then-Rep. Slotkin last year. He also was at a major fundraising disadvantage, a problem he won’t likely face in this campaign. For the Democrats, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) and Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed are announced Senate candidates. US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) is sending signals that she will soon enter the race. Former state House Speaker Joe Tate and term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel are possible candidates. The open Michigan Senate race with incumbent Gary Peters (D) retiring promises to be one of the top 2026 US Senate campaigns. Minnesota: Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) ended speculation that she will run for Minnesota’s open Senate seat. Rep. Omar announced at the end of last week that she will seek re-election to a fifth term in the House next year. At this point, all Minnesota US House members have chosen not to enter the US Senate race. Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still contemplating the move, however, and may enter the statewide race but has not done so to date. For the Democrats, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) appears to have the most momentum of the candidates who have formally announced for the Senate. Nebraska: A new poll, as we saw in the last election cycle, again finds a Republican incumbent in a virtual dead heat against Independent Dan Osborn. In 2024, Mr. Osborn was running ahead or even of Sen. Deb Fischer (R) for most of the last cycle but lost in the end 53-47%. Now, a new Change Research poll (3/28-4/1; 524 NE likely 2026 general election voters; online through Survey Monkey) projects Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) holding only a 46-45% lead over Mr. Osborn. In November, however, Sen. Ricketts recorded a 63-37% election victory in competing to fill the balance of the current term for which he was appointed. Though Change Research is a reputable pollster, the Survey Monkey platform has proven to be unreliable. The poll also assumes the Democrats will not file their own candidate in 2026 and back Mr. Osborn by default, as they did in 2024.

House CA-22: Visalia School Board Trustee Randy Villegas (D) announced that he will enter the 2026 congressional campaign apparently irrespective of whether 2022 and ’24 Democratic nominee Rudy Salas, a former state Assemblyman, ultimately decides to run again. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank California’s 22nd Congressional District as the most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) was re-elected in November with a 53-47% margin. CO-8: Though Democratic state Representative Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) has already raised over $1.1 million in his move to challenge 8th District freshman US Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton), former US Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D), who lost to Evans in November, announced that she will return for a comeback. Though Rutinel has already proven a strong fundraiser, he will now have to spend a great deal of that money just to win the party nomination. Therefore, the person benefiting the most from a Caraveo-Rutinel primary confrontation will be Rep. Evans. The 8th District was designed to be a competitive seat and has certainly performed in such a manner. The district’s first two election victors, Ms. Caraveo and Mr. Evans, won the seat with only 48 and 49% of the vote, respectively. GA-13: Former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair became the third Democrat to oppose veteran Democratic Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) for renomination. Mr. Blair joins state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and minor candidate Jonathan Bonner in the primary campaign. Rep. Scott, first elected in 2002 has health problems and is a reported retirement prospect. Georgia’s 13th District is solidly Democratic and contains Rockdale County and parts of Clayton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Henry, and Newton counties. MI-8: Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City), who had been mentioned as a possible candidate for Michigan’s open Senate seat announced that she will run for re-election in 2026. The 8th District is politically marginal – President Trump carried the seat, 50-48% – so Rep. Rivet running again gives the Democrats their best chance of holding the seat. MI-13: Former state Senator Adam Hollier (D), who lost to Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) in 2022, and failed to qualify for the ballot in a 2024 re-match attempt, says he will return to challenge the Congressman next year. In ’24, Rep. Thanedar defeated Detroit at-large City Councilwoman Mary Waters (D), 55-34%, to win renomination. The 13th District is heavily Democratic, so winning the party primary is tantamount to clinching the general election. In November, Rep. Thanedar was re-elected with 69% of the vote. NY-21:The Politico publication ran a story during the week reporting that New York US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is being courted to run for Governor and she’s apparently considering the move. The last time a Republican won the New York Governorship occurred when then-Gov. George Pataki clinched a third term in 2006. Prior to Mr. Pataki’s tenure, one must return to 1970 to see a Republican, Nelson Rockefeller for the fourth time, elected as New York’s Governor. Therefore, a Republican running for Governor faces a major uphill challenge even though incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) appears vulnerable. Also considering a gubernatorial bid is US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River). Democratic Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado and US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) are potential Democratic primary challengers to Gov. Hochul. TX-28: Former 34th District US Rep. Mayra Flores (R), who has lost two comeback attempts in a district designed to elect a Democrat, says she will move to Texas’ 28th District to oppose US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) who has twice been re-elected despite federal charges looming over him. In 2024, Republican Jay Furman moved from another state to run against Rep. Cuellar and lost, 53-47%. Mr. Furman announced that he will run again in 2026. Local Republican leaders were attempting to recruit Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina to run for the seat, so it remains to be seen how Ms. Flores coming into the picture affects what may be a contested GOP primary. WI-3: Wisconsin’s 3rd District Democratic primary gained two new candidates during the week. Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge and former Eau Claire City Councilmember Laura Benjamin announced their candidacies. They will face 2024 congressional nominee Rebecca Cooke in the 2026 Democratic primary. Ms. Cooke held incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) to a 51-49% victory in November, but she obviously won’t have a free ride to renomination in 2026.

Governor Colorado: US Senator Michael Bennet (D), as expected, announced his intention to run for Governor next year. While his presence dissuaded US Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) and Jason Crow (D-Aurora) from running (they both endorsed Sen. Bennet), Attorney General Phil Reiser (D), who was the first to announce for Governor, is committed to remaining in the race. He says that Sen. Bennet should remain in the Senate at the very time more Democratic voices are needed in Washington. Another potential gubernatorial candidate has decided to run for another office. Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D) announced her candidacy for Attorney General. Additionally, former Attorney General, US Senator, US Interior Secretary, and US Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar (D) also said he is still interested in a potential Governor’s bid, noting that he has previously held both Bennet’s and Reiser’s current positions. The Democratic primary looks to be the major battle to replace term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D). With Colorado now moving toward becoming a solid Democratic state, the eventual GOP nominee has much work to do just to prove he or she will be a viable candidate in the general election. In the Republican race are state Sen. Mark Baisley (R-Salida), state Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs), and Teller County Sheriff Jason Mikesell. Iowa: Though expected to run for a third full term, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) instead surprisingly announced that she will not seek re-election. Ms. Reynolds, at the end of her current term, will have served over nine years as Governor. As Lt. Governor, she replaced then-Gov. Terry Branstad (R) when President Trump appointed him as Ambassador to China in 2017. Ms. Reynolds was elected Governor in her own right in 2018 and 2022. She was favored to win again in 2026, so her retirement decision was unexpected. New Mexico: Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman (D), father of Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman, announced that he will enter the open 2026 Governor’s race. He will oppose former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland and likely former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima in the Democratic primary. Therefore, Ms. Haaland, who looked to have an easy run for the party nomination will now face significant competition. For the Republicans, Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull launched his gubernatorial bid making him the first official GOP contender. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The eventual Democratic nominee will become a heavy favorite to clinch the general election. Ohio: The Fabrizio Lee & Associates research firm polled the Ohio Republican electorate, testing the state’s open Governor’s race. Their study (4/6-10; OH likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy swamping state Attorney General Dave Yost by a 75-10% margin. Lt. Gov. Jim Tressel (R), who says he will not run for Governor, still draws 11% support in the poll. Of those sampled, 77% say they are aware that President Trump supports Mr. Ramaswamy. Virginia: The most recent campaign finance disclosures are available for the open 2025 Virginia Governor’s race and, as expected, Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger holds a major resource lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R). Ms. Spanberger raised $6.7 million for her Governor’s campaign in the first quarter and reports $11 million cash-on-hand. Lt. Governor Earle-Sears raised $3.3 million and has $4.4 million in her campaign account. The Lt. Governor, however, was barred from raising any money during the 39 days of the reporting quarter when the legislature was in session.

State and Local Oakland: Post-election vote counts find ex-Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) leading former Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D) by a 51-49% count in the city’s Ranked Choice Voting election to replace recalled Mayor Sheng Thao (D). The tabulation only represents the recording of approximately 50,000 ballots, however. Under the California system of waiting days to count ballots, the next released total will occur April 18th, with the final RCV tallies scheduled to declare a winner on April 25th. The first count, however, does reflect the latest polling data that found Mr. Taylor slightly leading the former 27-year congressional veteran.

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